VM ANALYTICS - Economic Snapshots

VM ANALYTICS

Perform sector trend research, competitive positioning and management quality assessmentsConduct market sizing, industry due diligence and target screeningAnalyze risk factor correlations, macro-economic drivers and volatility regimes

Currencies

Week ending 2025‑09‑26

Broad: Risk‑off tone emerged. EUR/USD fell back below 1.171, GBP/USD extended losses, and AUD/NZD weakened further. JPY/USD strengthened as a defensive bid returned. EMFX diverged: BRL and MXN held firm, while TRY, INR, and IDR slipped.
Volatility: G10 vols stayed modest, but commodity FX (AUD, NZD) remained the most volatile. EMFX vols were stable, though IDR continued to show outsized drawdowns.
Note: Late‑month rotation favored safe havens (JPY, CHF) and select EMFX (MXN, ZAR), while commodity currencies bore the brunt of risk‑off flows.

Week ending 2025‑09‑19

Broad: Consolidation week. EUR/USD and CHF/USD were steady, GBP/USD corrected lower, and AUD/NZD both retreated after strong prior gains. CAD/USD firmed slightly. EMFX was mixed: BRL and MXN held gains, while IDR weakened.
Volatility: Still anchored, though NZD and AUD saw sharper weekly swings. EMFX vols remained contained, with IDR drawdowns notable.
Note: Market paused after early‑month risk‑on. Commodity FX softened, while EMFX resilience contrasted with G10 corrections.

Week ending 2025‑09‑12

Broad: Risk‑on bias. EUR/USD edged higher, GBP/USD extended gains, and AUD/USD rallied strongly. NZD/USD also advanced, while JPY/USD softened. EMFX was broadly stronger, led by MXN and ZAR. TRY and INR slipped modestly.
Volatility: AUD and NZD vols remained elevated, while core pairs (EUR, CHF) stayed subdued. EMFX vols were stable, with MXN and ZAR showing steady realized ranges.
Note: Rotation into high‑beta FX was clear, with commodity currencies outperforming. JPY underperformance highlighted divergence within G10.

Week ending 2025‑09‑05

Broad: Mixed tone across majors. EUR/USD held steady near 1.171, while JPY/USD weakened slightly. GBP/USD and AUD/USD gained modestly, with NZD/USD and CAD/USD also firmer. EMFX was constructive, with BRL, MXN, and ZAR all advancing. TRY and INR were stable, while IDR and CNY showed muted moves.
Volatility: Realized vol remained low across G10, with AUD and NZD showing the highest monthly swings. EMFX vols were contained, though IDR carried a heavier drawdown profile.
Note: Early September favored high‑beta FX (AUD, NZD, ZAR), while safe havens (JPY, CHF) lagged.

Commodities

Week ending 2025‑09‑26

Broad: Strong risk‑on surge. Energy rallied (WTI +4.76%, Brent +4.27%), precious metals broke out (Gold +2.23%, Silver +7.22%, Platinum +11.96%, Palladium +10.55%), lithium extended gains (+5.11%). Ags lagged (Wheat ‑0.48%, Soybeans ‑1.00%).
Volatility: Elevated in Platinum (6.30%), Palladium (8.67%), and Silver (2.83%). Energy vol moderate; Gold remained subdued (0.59%).
Note: Broad commodity strength concentrated in metals, with late‑month energy rally confirming risk‑on tone. Grains and gas remained defensive

Week ending 2025‑09‑19

Broad: Consolidation week. Energy flat (WTI +0.29%, Brent ‑0.37%), metals steady (Gold +1.12%, Silver +1.83%, Platinum +0.73%), Palladium corrected (‑5.25%). Lithium rebounded (+5.68%). Ags soft (Soybeans ‑1.61%, Wheat +0.24%).
Volatility: Palladium’s sharp drawdown (‑5.25%) underscored its high vol regime. Other metals maintained steady realized vol.
Note: Market paused after strong early‑month gains. Lithium strength contrasted with weakness in grains and gas.

Week ending 2025‑09‑12

Broad: Risk‑on bias. Energy gained (WTI +0.94%, Brent +1.79%), metals advanced (Gold +1.32%, Silver +3.04%, Platinum +1.39%, Palladium +8.82%), lithium slipped (‑1.09%), ags mixed (Wheat +0.72%, Soybeans +1.82%).
Volatility: Precious metals vol remained elevated (Silver 2.83%, Palladium 8.67%). Energy vol moderate (WTI 2.42%, Brent 2.32%).
Note: Strong rotation into precious metals, especially Palladium. Natural Gas underperformed (‑3.32%), highlighting divergence within energy.

Week ending 2025‑09‑05

Broad: Mixed start to September. Energy flat to slightly higher (WTI 72.63, Brent 29.54), precious metals steady (Gold 331.05, Silver 37.21), while ags were muted (Wheat 4.17, Soybeans 21.92).
Volatility: Low realized vol across most commodities; Platinum (6.30%) and Palladium (8.67%) already showing elevated monthly swings.
Note: Early positioning favored metals and lithium proxies, while Natural Gas and grains showed mild downside drawdowns.

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